Dinamo Samarqand 2–1 Sogdiana: Result & Stats

Dinamo Samarqand

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sogdiana

F. Abdurakhmonov 78'

A. Khozhimirzaev 76'

I. Kobilov 61'

4/8/2026

Super League · Round 6Dinamo Samarkand Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Dinamo Samarqand40%

×Draw27%

Sogdiana34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo SamarqandExpected goals in this matchSogdiana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.20

Dinamo Samarqand

1.33

Sogdiana

1.20

Dinamo Samarqand creates 11% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 102 away

1.27

creates per match

1.10

1.29

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Dinamo Samarqand

1.27

Sogdiana

1.10

allows per match

Dinamo Samarqand

1.29

Sogdiana

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Samarqand+0.00on par

Sogdiana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Samarqand ↓

Sogdiana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Dinamo Samarqand or draw

66%

Dinamo Samarqand or Sogdiana

73%

Draw or Sogdiana

60%

Winning margin

Dinamo Samarqand wins by 2+

18%

Sogdiana wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Dinamo Samarqand 1+ goals

74%

Dinamo Samarqand 2+ goals

38%

Dinamo Samarqand 3+ goals

15%

Sogdiana 1+ goals

70%

Sogdiana 2+ goals

34%

Sogdiana 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Samarqand (draw refunded)

54%

Sogdiana (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Samarqand at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.29 · 59 matches

Sogdiana away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.40 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Samarqand attack 1.27 + Sogdiana defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.33

Sogdiana attack 1.10 + Dinamo Samarqand defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dinamo Samarqand scores more

40%

level

27%

Sogdiana scores more

34%

Dinamo Samarqand at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dinamo Samarqand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

F. Abdurakhmonov← U. Khoshimov

46'

J. Jumaboev← U. Abdullaev

46'

A. Amanov← K. Sarfo

53'

O. Nurmatov← J. Kakhramonov

53'

O. Jurakuziev← A. Boljevic

61'

I. Kobilov↳ L. Doriev

66'

D. Salou← T. Mavretic

74'

K. Khalilov← J. Abdusalomov

76'

A. Khozhimirzaev

78'

F. Abdurakhmonov↳ K. Khalilov

79'

O. Karimov← N. Soyibov

85'

J. Jaloliddinov← S. Izzatov

85'

A. Saidov← O. Akhadov

90+2'

Dinamo

Sogdiana

1

Isokov

8

▼

Izzatov

13

Ivanovic

3

⚽

Kobilov

4

▼

Akhadov

2

Dzhuraboe

10

▼

Kakhramon

32

▼

Soyibov

7

▼

Boljevic

9

Mulic

14

A

27

7

5

6

22

▼

Abdullaev

14

▼

Mavretic

21

▼

Abdusalom

16

▼

Sarfo

4

Tukhtasin

99

▼

Khoshimov

10

⚽

Khozhimir

Manager: Vadim Abramov

46'▲F. Abdurakhmonov←▼U. Khoshimov

46'▲J. Jumaboev←▼U. Abdullaev

46'▲A. Amanov←▼K. Sarfo

66'▲D. Salou←▼T. Mavretic

74'▲K. Khalilov←▼J. Abdusalomov

Dinamo Samarqand substitutes

11Khalilov17Mustafoev37Abdurakhmonov13Yagudin20Jumaboev8AmanovSalou19Brasil77Oblakulov

Manager: Ulugbek Bakaev

53'▲O. Nurmatov←▼J. Kakhramonov

53'▲O. Jurakuziev←▼A. Boljevic

79'▲O. Karimov←▼N. Soyibov

85'▲J. Jaloliddinov←▼S. Izzatov

85'▲A. Saidov←▼O. Akhadov

Sogdiana substitutes

42Erkinov77Nurmatov70Jaloliddinov29Saidov74Nadzhafaliev11Jurakuziev17Karimov21Tukhtasinov22Abdurashidov