Sogdiana 1–0 Buxoro: Result & Stats | Super League

Sogdiana

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Buxoro

11/4/2023

Super League · Round 24So'g'diyona Sport Majmuasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Sogdiana54%

×Draw26%

Buxoro21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SogdianaExpected goals in this matchBuxoro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.83

Sogdiana

1.52

Buxoro

0.83

Sogdiana creates 83% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 61 away

1.43

creates per match

0.64

1.02

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Sogdiana

1.43

Buxoro

0.64

allows per match

Sogdiana

1.02

Buxoro

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sogdiana+0.00on par

Buxoro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sogdiana ↓

Buxoro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sogdiana or draw

79%

Sogdiana or Buxoro

74%

Draw or Buxoro

46%

Winning margin

Sogdiana wins by 2+

28%

Buxoro wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Sogdiana 1+ goals

78%

Sogdiana 2+ goals

45%

Sogdiana 3+ goals

20%

Buxoro 1+ goals

56%

Buxoro 2+ goals

20%

Buxoro 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sogdiana (draw refunded)

72%

Buxoro (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sogdiana at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.02 · 98 matches

Buxoro away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.62 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sogdiana attack 1.43 + Buxoro defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.52

Buxoro attack 0.64 + Sogdiana defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sogdiana scores more

54%

level

26%

Buxoro scores more

21%

Sogdiana at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sogdiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff