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Buxoro vs Sogdiana — Super League 2026

Buxoro
Buxoro
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Sogdiana
Sogdiana
10/23/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 26Buxoro Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Buxoro34%
×Draw28%
Sogdiana39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buxoro
1.15
Sogdiana
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 100 away

creates per match

Buxoro
0.94
Sogdiana
1.10

allows per match

Buxoro
1.40
Sogdiana
1.36

finishing

Buxoro+0.00on par
Sogdiana+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buxoro ↓

Sogdiana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Buxoro or draw
61%
Buxoro or Sogdiana
72%
Draw or Sogdiana
66%

Winning margin

Buxoro wins by 2+
14%
Sogdiana wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Buxoro 1+ goals
68%
Buxoro 2+ goals
32%
Buxoro 3+ goals
11%
Sogdiana 1+ goals
71%
Sogdiana 2+ goals
36%
Sogdiana 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Buxoro (draw refunded)
47%
Sogdiana (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buxoro at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.40 · 62 matches

Sogdiana away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.36 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buxoro attack 0.94 + Sogdiana defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.15

Sogdiana attack 1.10 + Buxoro defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Buxoro scores more
34%
level
28%
Sogdiana scores more
39%

Sogdiana at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sogdiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Buxoro 2–0 Sogdiana

Buxoro beat Sogdiana 2-0 in Super League on October 23, 2025.

The match was played at Buxoro Arena in Bukhara.