Sodupe 0–0 San Ignacio: Result & Stats

Sodupe

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

San Ignacio

3/13/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 21Campo Lorenzo Hurtado de Saratxo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sodupe39%

×Draw29%

San Ignacio31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SodupeExpected goals in this matchSan Ignacio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.01

Sodupe

1.17

San Ignacio

1.01

Sodupe creates 16% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 112 away

1.17

creates per match

0.99

1.03

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Sodupe

1.17

San Ignacio

0.99

allows per match

Sodupe

1.03

San Ignacio

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sodupe+0.00on par

San Ignacio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sodupe ↓

San Ignacio →

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Sodupe or draw

69%

Sodupe or San Ignacio

71%

Draw or San Ignacio

61%

Winning margin

Sodupe wins by 2+

17%

San Ignacio wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sodupe 1+ goals

69%

Sodupe 2+ goals

33%

Sodupe 3+ goals

11%

San Ignacio 1+ goals

64%

San Ignacio 2+ goals

27%

San Ignacio 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Sodupe (draw refunded)

56%

San Ignacio (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sodupe at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

San Ignacio away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.17 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sodupe attack 1.17 + San Ignacio defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.17

San Ignacio attack 0.99 + Sodupe defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sodupe scores more

39%

level

29%

San Ignacio scores more

31%

Sodupe at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sodupe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff