Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

San Ignacio vs Sodupe — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

San Ignacio
San Ignacio
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Sodupe
Sodupe
10/12/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 9Campo de Fútbol de Adurtzabal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

San Ignacio45%
×Draw27%
Sodupe29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Ignacio
1.42
Sodupe
1.08

San Ignacio creates 31% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 28 away

creates per match

San Ignacio
1.38
Sodupe
0.96

allows per match

San Ignacio
1.21
Sodupe
1.46

finishing

San Ignacio+0.00on par
Sodupe+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Ignacio ↓

Sodupe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

San Ignacio or draw
71%
San Ignacio or Sodupe
73%
Draw or Sodupe
55%

Winning margin

San Ignacio wins by 2+
22%
Sodupe wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

San Ignacio 1+ goals
76%
San Ignacio 2+ goals
41%
San Ignacio 3+ goals
17%
Sodupe 1+ goals
66%
Sodupe 2+ goals
29%
Sodupe 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

San Ignacio (draw refunded)
61%
Sodupe (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Ignacio at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

Sodupe away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.46 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Ignacio attack 1.38 + Sodupe defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.42

Sodupe attack 0.96 + San Ignacio defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

San Ignacio scores more
45%
level
27%
Sodupe scores more
29%

San Ignacio at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "San Ignacio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Ignacio vs Sodupe

San Ignacio beat Sodupe 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on October 12, 2019.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol de Adurtzabal in Vitoria-Gasteiz.