Socuéllamos 1–2 Cazalegas: Result & Stats

Socuéllamos

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Cazalegas

2/9/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 21Estadio Paquito Jiménez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Socuéllamos60%

×Draw23%

Cazalegas17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SocuéllamosExpected goals in this matchCazalegas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.81

Socuéllamos

1.75

Cazalegas

0.81

Socuéllamos creates 116% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 51 away

1.88

creates per match

0.90

0.73

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Socuéllamos

1.88

Cazalegas

0.90

allows per match

Socuéllamos

0.73

Cazalegas

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Socuéllamos+0.00on par

Cazalegas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Socuéllamos ↓

Cazalegas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Socuéllamos or draw

83%

Socuéllamos or Cazalegas

77%

Draw or Cazalegas

40%

Winning margin

Socuéllamos wins by 2+

34%

Cazalegas wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Socuéllamos 1+ goals

83%

Socuéllamos 2+ goals

52%

Socuéllamos 3+ goals

25%

Cazalegas 1+ goals

56%

Cazalegas 2+ goals

19%

Cazalegas 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Socuéllamos (draw refunded)

78%

Cazalegas (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Socuéllamos at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.73 · 48 matches

Cazalegas away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.61 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Socuéllamos attack 1.88 + Cazalegas defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.75

Cazalegas attack 0.90 + Socuéllamos defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Socuéllamos scores more

60%

level

23%

Cazalegas scores more

17%

Socuéllamos at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Socuéllamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff