Cazalegas 0–3 Socuéllamos: Result & Stats

Cazalegas

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Socuéllamos

11/5/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 9Ciudad Deportiva Ebora Formación

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Cazalegas31%

×Draw29%

Socuéllamos40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CazalegasExpected goals in this matchSocuéllamos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.17

Cazalegas

0.98

Socuéllamos

1.17

Socuéllamos creates 19% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 48 away

1.29

creates per match

1.15

1.20

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Cazalegas

1.29

Socuéllamos

1.15

allows per match

Cazalegas

1.20

Socuéllamos

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cazalegas+0.00on par

Socuéllamos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cazalegas ↓

Socuéllamos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Cazalegas or draw

60%

Cazalegas or Socuéllamos

71%

Draw or Socuéllamos

69%

Winning margin

Cazalegas wins by 2+

11%

Socuéllamos wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Cazalegas 1+ goals

62%

Cazalegas 2+ goals

26%

Cazalegas 3+ goals

8%

Socuéllamos 1+ goals

69%

Socuéllamos 2+ goals

33%

Socuéllamos 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Cazalegas (draw refunded)

43%

Socuéllamos (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cazalegas at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.20 · 51 matches

Socuéllamos away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.67 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cazalegas attack 1.29 + Socuéllamos defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.98

Socuéllamos attack 1.15 + Cazalegas defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cazalegas scores more

31%

level

29%

Socuéllamos scores more

40%

Socuéllamos at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Socuéllamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff