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Social vs Coimbra — League #1142 2026

Social
Social
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Coimbra
Coimbra
Bere 58'
Bruno Menezes 1'
10/5/2024League #1142League #1142 · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Louis Ensch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Social8%
×Draw24%
Coimbra68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Social
0.34
Coimbra
1.54

Coimbra creates 353% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Social
0.00
Coimbra
1.83

allows per match

Social
1.25
Coimbra
0.67

finishing

Social+0.00on par
Coimbra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 71Over: 2971%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 77Yes: 2377%No
  • No77
  • Yes23

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Social ↓

Coimbra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–124%
0–218%
0–39%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–01%
2–11%
2–21%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (24%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Social or draw
32%
Social or Coimbra
76%
Draw or Coimbra
92%

Winning margin

Social wins by 2+
1%
Coimbra wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Social 1+ goals
29%
Social 2+ goals
5%
Social 3+ goals
1%
Coimbra 1+ goals
79%
Coimbra 2+ goals
45%
Coimbra 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Social (draw refunded)
10%
Coimbra (draw refunded)
90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Social at home — creates 0.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Coimbra away — creates 1.83, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Social attack 0.00 + Coimbra defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.34

Coimbra attack 1.83 + Social defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Social scores more
8%
level
24%
Coimbra scores more
68%

Coimbra at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Coimbra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
Bruno Menezes
58'
Bere

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Social vs Coimbra

Coimbra beat Social 2-0 in League #1142 on October 5, 2024.

Goals: Bruno Menezes (1'), Bere (58').

The match was played at Estádio Louis Ensch in Coronel Fabriciano, Minas Gerais.