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Coimbra vs Social — League #1142 2026

Coimbra
Coimbra
FT
5 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Social
Social
Bruno Menezes 90+4', 39'
Diego Fernandes 57', 9'
Bere 1'
Unknown 77', 41'
9/13/2024League #1142League #1142 · 1st Phase - 3Centro de Treinamento Flávio Pentagna Guimarães

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Coimbra73%
×Draw16%
Social11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coimbra
2.54
Social
0.88

Coimbra creates 189% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Coimbra
2.57
Social
0.75

allows per match

Coimbra
1.00
Social
2.50

finishing

Coimbra+0.00on par
Social+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 66Under: 3466%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 54No: 4654%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coimbra ↓

Social →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Coimbra or draw
89%
Coimbra or Social
84%
Draw or Social
27%

Winning margin

Coimbra wins by 2+
51%
Social wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Coimbra 1+ goals
92%
Coimbra 2+ goals
72%
Coimbra 3+ goals
46%
Social 1+ goals
59%
Social 2+ goals
22%
Social 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Coimbra (draw refunded)
87%
Social (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coimbra at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Social away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coimbra attack 2.57 + Social defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.54

Social attack 0.75 + Coimbra defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Coimbra scores more
73%
level
16%
Social scores more
11%

Coimbra at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Coimbra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
Bere
9'
Diego Fernandes
39'
Bruno Menezes
41'
57'
Diego Fernandes
77'
90+4'
Bruno Menezes

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #1142: Coimbra 5–2 Social

Coimbra beat Social 5-2 in League #1142 on September 13, 2024.

Goals: Bere (1'), Diego Fernandes (9', 57'), Bruno Menezes (39', 90+4'), ? (41', 77').

The match was played at Centro de Treinamento Flávio Pentagna Guimarães in Contagem, Minas Gerais.