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Levante vs Las Palmas — La Liga 2026

Levante
Levante
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Las Palmas
Las Palmas
1/25/2016La LigaLa Liga · Round 21Ciutat de València

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Levante39%
×Draw24%
Las Palmas38%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levante
1.59
Las Palmas
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 98 home / 3 away

creates per match

Levante
1.51
Las Palmas
1.67

allows per match

Levante
1.48
Las Palmas
1.67

finishing

Levante+0.00on par
Las Palmas+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levante ↓

Las Palmas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Levante or draw
62%
Levante or Las Palmas
76%
Draw or Las Palmas
61%

Winning margin

Levante wins by 2+
19%
Las Palmas wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Levante 1+ goals
80%
Levante 2+ goals
47%
Levante 3+ goals
21%
Las Palmas 1+ goals
79%
Las Palmas 2+ goals
46%
Las Palmas 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Levante (draw refunded)
51%
Las Palmas (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levante at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.48 · 98 matches

Las Palmas away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levante attack 1.51 + Las Palmas defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.59

Las Palmas attack 1.67 + Levante defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Levante scores more
39%
level
24%
Las Palmas scores more
38%

Levante at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Levante will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

La Liga: Levante 3–2 Las Palmas

Levante beat Las Palmas 3-2 in La Liga on January 25, 2016.

The match was played at Ciutat de València in Valencia.