Las Palmas 0–0 Levante: Result & Stats

Las Palmas

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Levante

4/22/2023

Segunda División · Round 37Estadio de Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Las Palmas41%

×Draw29%

Levante29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Las PalmasExpected goals in this matchLevante

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.96

Las Palmas

1.20

Levante

0.96

Las Palmas creates 25% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 67 away

1.47

creates per match

1.03

0.89

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Las Palmas

1.47

Levante

1.03

allows per match

Las Palmas

0.89

Levante

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Las Palmas+0.00on par

Levante+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Palmas ↓

Levante →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Las Palmas or draw

71%

Las Palmas or Levante

71%

Draw or Levante

59%

Winning margin

Las Palmas wins by 2+

18%

Levante wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Las Palmas 1+ goals

70%

Las Palmas 2+ goals

34%

Las Palmas 3+ goals

12%

Levante 1+ goals

62%

Levante 2+ goals

25%

Levante 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Las Palmas (draw refunded)

59%

Levante (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Palmas at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.89 · 128 matches

Levante away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.93 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Palmas attack 1.47 + Levante defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.20

Levante attack 1.03 + Las Palmas defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Las Palmas scores more

41%

level

29%

Levante scores more

29%

Las Palmas at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Las Palmas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

Campaña

Levante · M

7.9

Match Events

18'

Álex Suárez← Eric Curbelo

37'

45+2'

45+2'

55'

59'

Soldado← Wesley Moraes

63'

Álvaro Jiménez← Pejiño

63'

Álvaro Lemos← Marvin Park

73'

Roberto Soldado

77'

Joni Montiel← Campaña

78'

Rober Ibáñez← Jorge de Frutos

85'

Enrique Clemente← Sergi Cardona

85'

Fabio González← Marc Cardona

86'

Joni Montiel

88'

Álvaro Jiménez

89'

Alex Suárez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LasLevante

Overview

60%Possession40%

8Total Shots9

6Corners3

14Fouls11

Shots

8Total Shots9

3On Target1

2Off Target6

3Blocked2

3Inside Box5

5Outside Box4

Passing

60%Possession40%

509Total Passes335

422Accurate Passes248

83%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls11

4Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1