Sporting Gijon 0–1 Celta Vigo: Result & Stats

Sporting Gijon

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Celta Vigo

Nolito 64'

4/10/2016

La Liga · Round 32El Molinón-Enrique Castro Quini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sporting Gijon41%

×Draw27%

Celta Vigo33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting GijonExpected goals in this matchCelta Vigo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.19

Sporting Gijon

1.36

Celta Vigo

1.19

Sporting Gijon creates 14% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 140 away

1.25

creates per match

1.14

1.25

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Sporting Gijon

1.25

Celta Vigo

1.14

allows per match

Sporting Gijon

1.25

Celta Vigo

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Gijon+0.00on par

Celta Vigo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijon ↓

Celta Vigo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sporting Gijon or draw

67%

Sporting Gijon or Celta Vigo

73%

Draw or Celta Vigo

59%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+

19%

Celta Vigo wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals

74%

Sporting Gijon 2+ goals

39%

Sporting Gijon 3+ goals

16%

Celta Vigo 1+ goals

70%

Celta Vigo 2+ goals

33%

Celta Vigo 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)

55%

Celta Vigo (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijon at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Celta Vigo away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.47 · 140 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijon attack 1.25 + Celta Vigo defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.36

Celta Vigo attack 1.14 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sporting Gijon scores more

41%

level

27%

Celta Vigo scores more

33%

Sporting Gijon at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sporting Gijon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Nolito

Celta Vigo · F

8.1

Match Events

19'

Jonny Castro

35'

Ognjen Vranješ

35'

Fabián Orellana

60'

Carlos Castro← Carlos Carmona

63'

P. Hernández← Iago Aspas

64'

Nolito↳ F. Orellana

67'

Daniel Wass

69'

A. Halilović← Pablo Pérez

71'

Nacho Cases

77'

D. N'Di← Jony

79'

John Guidetti

83'

C. Beauvue← J. Guidetti

85'

Rubén Blanco

90+1'

Hugo Mallo← F. Orellana

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportingCelta

Overview

41%Possession59%

10Total Shots17

7Corners7

7Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots17

2On Target5

6Off Target7

2Blocked5

6Inside Box13

4Outside Box4

Passing

41%Possession59%

315Total Passes478

215Accurate Passes374

68%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls11

2Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1