Celta Vigo vs Sporting Gijon — La Liga 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
Celta Vigo32%
Sporting Gijon44%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Sporting Gijon creates 19% more chances
Season form · 139 home / 4 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over57
- Under43
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes60
- No40
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Celta Vigo ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Celta Vigo at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.24 · 139 matches
Sporting Gijon away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Celta Vigo attack 1.47 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.36
Sporting Gijon attack 2.00 + Celta Vigo defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.62
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Sporting Gijon at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Sporting Gijon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
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Real BetisCelta Vigo
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OviedoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Celta Vigo host Sporting Gijon on Wednesday, 21 September 2016 at 18:00. The match is part of the La Liga 2026/2027 season.
La Liga: Celta Vigo 2–1 Sporting Gijon
Celta Vigo beat Sporting Gijon 2-1 in La Liga on September 21, 2016.
Goals: Hugo Mallo (66'), D. Čop (80' pen), Iago Aspas (87' pen).
Celta Vigo controlled possession (68%) and registered 15 shots to 4.
The match was played at Municipal de Balaídos in Vigo.