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Sochi U20 vs Rubin Kazan U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Sochi U20
Sochi U20
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rubin Kazan U20
Rubin Kazan U20
3/29/2024Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 3Akademii FK Sochi pole № 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Sochi U2046%
×Draw24%
Rubin Kazan U2030%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sochi U20
1.67
Rubin Kazan U20
1.31

Sochi U20 creates 27% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 84 away

creates per match

Sochi U20
1.58
Rubin Kazan U20
1.32

allows per match

Sochi U20
1.29
Rubin Kazan U20
1.75

finishing

Sochi U20+0.00on par
Rubin Kazan U20+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sochi U20 ↓

Rubin Kazan U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sochi U20 or draw
70%
Sochi U20 or Rubin Kazan U20
76%
Draw or Rubin Kazan U20
54%

Winning margin

Sochi U20 wins by 2+
24%
Rubin Kazan U20 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sochi U20 1+ goals
81%
Sochi U20 2+ goals
50%
Sochi U20 3+ goals
23%
Rubin Kazan U20 1+ goals
73%
Rubin Kazan U20 2+ goals
38%
Rubin Kazan U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sochi U20 (draw refunded)
60%
Rubin Kazan U20 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sochi U20 at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.29 · 93 matches

Rubin Kazan U20 away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.75 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sochi U20 attack 1.58 + Rubin Kazan U20 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.67

Rubin Kazan U20 attack 1.32 + Sochi U20 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sochi U20 scores more
46%
level
24%
Rubin Kazan U20 scores more
30%

Sochi U20 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sochi U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sochi U20 vs Rubin Kazan U20

Sochi U20 beat Rubin Kazan U20 1-0 in Youth Championship on March 29, 2024.

The match was played at Akademii FK Sochi pole № 2 in Sochi.