Sochi U20 1–0 Krasnodar U19: Result & Stats

Sochi U20

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Krasnodar U19

11/10/2023

Youth Championship · Round 17Akademiya FK Sochi pole №6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Sochi U2034%

×Draw24%

Krasnodar U1942%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sochi U20Expected goals in this matchKrasnodar U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.61

Sochi U20

1.43

Krasnodar U19

1.61

Krasnodar U19 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 78 away

1.58

creates per match

1.94

1.29

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Sochi U20

1.58

Krasnodar U19

1.94

allows per match

Sochi U20

1.29

Krasnodar U19

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sochi U20+0.00on par

Krasnodar U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sochi U20 ↓

Krasnodar U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Sochi U20 or draw

58%

Sochi U20 or Krasnodar U19

76%

Draw or Krasnodar U19

66%

Winning margin

Sochi U20 wins by 2+

16%

Krasnodar U19 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Sochi U20 1+ goals

76%

Sochi U20 2+ goals

42%

Sochi U20 3+ goals

17%

Krasnodar U19 1+ goals

80%

Krasnodar U19 2+ goals

48%

Krasnodar U19 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Sochi U20 (draw refunded)

45%

Krasnodar U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sochi U20 at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.29 · 93 matches

Krasnodar U19 away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.27 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sochi U20 attack 1.58 + Krasnodar U19 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.43

Krasnodar U19 attack 1.94 + Sochi U20 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sochi U20 scores more

34%

level

24%

Krasnodar U19 scores more

42%

Krasnodar U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Krasnodar U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff