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Krasnodar U19 vs Sochi U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Krasnodar U19
Krasnodar U19
FT
8 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Sochi U20
Sochi U20
4/11/2025Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 5Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Krasnodar U1961%
×Draw20%
Sochi U2019%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasnodar U19
2.23
Sochi U20
1.16

Krasnodar U19 creates 92% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 92 away

creates per match

Krasnodar U19
2.76
Sochi U20
1.33

allows per match

Krasnodar U19
0.99
Sochi U20
1.71

finishing

Krasnodar U19+0.00on par
Sochi U20+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar U19 ↓

Sochi U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Krasnodar U19 or draw
81%
Krasnodar U19 or Sochi U20
80%
Draw or Sochi U20
39%

Winning margin

Krasnodar U19 wins by 2+
39%
Sochi U20 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Krasnodar U19 1+ goals
89%
Krasnodar U19 2+ goals
65%
Krasnodar U19 3+ goals
38%
Sochi U20 1+ goals
69%
Sochi U20 2+ goals
32%
Sochi U20 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar U19 (draw refunded)
76%
Sochi U20 (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar U19 at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.99 · 80 matches

Sochi U20 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.71 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar U19 attack 2.76 + Sochi U20 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.23

Sochi U20 attack 1.33 + Krasnodar U19 defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Krasnodar U19 scores more
61%
level
20%
Sochi U20 scores more
19%

Krasnodar U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Krasnodar U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Krasnodar U19 8–1 Sochi U20

Krasnodar U19 beat Sochi U20 8-1 in Youth Championship on April 11, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar in Krasnodar.