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Sochi II vs Sevastopol — Second League - Group 1 2020

Sochi II
Sochi II
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Sevastopol
Sevastopol
6/29/2025Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Akademia FK Sochi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sochi II39%
×Draw27%
Sevastopol34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sochi II
1.30
Sevastopol
1.18

Sochi II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 52 away

creates per match

Sochi II
1.41
Sevastopol
1.60

allows per match

Sochi II
0.76
Sevastopol
1.19

finishing

Sochi II+0.00on par
Sevastopol+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sochi II ↓

Sevastopol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sochi II or draw
66%
Sochi II or Sevastopol
73%
Draw or Sevastopol
61%

Winning margin

Sochi II wins by 2+
18%
Sevastopol wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sochi II 1+ goals
73%
Sochi II 2+ goals
37%
Sochi II 3+ goals
14%
Sevastopol 1+ goals
69%
Sevastopol 2+ goals
33%
Sevastopol 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sochi II (draw refunded)
54%
Sevastopol (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sochi II at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Sevastopol away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.19 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sochi II attack 1.41 + Sevastopol defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.30

Sevastopol attack 1.60 + Sochi II defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sochi II scores more
39%
level
27%
Sevastopol scores more
34%

Sochi II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sochi II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sochi II vs Sevastopol

Sevastopol beat Sochi II 3-1 in Second League - Group 1 on June 29, 2025.

The match was played at Akademia FK Sochi.