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Sevastopol vs Sochi II — Second League - Group 1 2020

Sevastopol
Sevastopol
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Sochi II
Sochi II
4/13/2025Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Sportyvnyj Kompleks

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Sevastopol48%
×Draw27%
Sochi II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sevastopol
1.41
Sochi II
0.93

Sevastopol creates 52% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 16 away

creates per match

Sevastopol
1.37
Sochi II
1.25

allows per match

Sevastopol
0.61
Sochi II
1.44

finishing

Sevastopol+0.00on par
Sochi II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sevastopol ↓

Sochi II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sevastopol or draw
75%
Sevastopol or Sochi II
73%
Draw or Sochi II
52%

Winning margin

Sevastopol wins by 2+
23%
Sochi II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sevastopol 1+ goals
76%
Sevastopol 2+ goals
41%
Sevastopol 3+ goals
17%
Sochi II 1+ goals
61%
Sochi II 2+ goals
24%
Sochi II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sevastopol (draw refunded)
66%
Sochi II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sevastopol at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.61 · 51 matches

Sochi II away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sevastopol attack 1.37 + Sochi II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.41

Sochi II attack 1.25 + Sevastopol defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sevastopol scores more
48%
level
27%
Sochi II scores more
25%

Sevastopol at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sevastopol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Sevastopol 1–4 Sochi II

Sochi II beat Sevastopol 4-1 in Second League - Group 1 on April 13, 2025.

The match was played at Sportyvnyj Kompleks in Sevastopol.