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Sochi II vs Dynamo Makhachkala II — Second League - Group 1 2020

Sochi II
Sochi II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dynamo Makhachkala II
Dynamo Makhachkala II
9/20/2025Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Relegation Round - Group 1 - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sochi II65%
×Draw22%
Dynamo Makhachkala II14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sochi II
1.87
Dynamo Makhachkala II
0.71

Sochi II creates 163% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

creates per match

Sochi II
1.41
Dynamo Makhachkala II
0.65

allows per match

Sochi II
0.76
Dynamo Makhachkala II
2.33

finishing

Sochi II+0.00on par
Dynamo Makhachkala II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sochi II ↓

Dynamo Makhachkala II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sochi II or draw
86%
Sochi II or Dynamo Makhachkala II
78%
Draw or Dynamo Makhachkala II
35%

Winning margin

Sochi II wins by 2+
39%
Dynamo Makhachkala II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sochi II 1+ goals
85%
Sochi II 2+ goals
56%
Sochi II 3+ goals
29%
Dynamo Makhachkala II 1+ goals
51%
Dynamo Makhachkala II 2+ goals
16%
Dynamo Makhachkala II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sochi II (draw refunded)
83%
Dynamo Makhachkala II (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sochi II at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Dynamo Makhachkala II away — creates 0.65, concedes 2.33 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sochi II attack 1.41 + Dynamo Makhachkala II defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.87

Dynamo Makhachkala II attack 0.65 + Sochi II defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Sochi II scores more
65%
level
22%
Dynamo Makhachkala II scores more
14%

Sochi II at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Sochi II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sochi II vs Dynamo Makhachkala II

Sochi II and Dynamo Makhachkala II drew 0-0 in Second League - Group 1 on September 20, 2025.