Dynamo Makhachkala II 1–2 Sochi II: Result & Stats

Dynamo Makhachkala II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Sochi II

3/22/2025

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Dynamo Makhachkala II27%

×Draw26%

Sochi II47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo Makhachkala IIExpected goals in this matchSochi II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.52

Dynamo Makhachkala II

1.10

Sochi II

1.52

Sochi II creates 38% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 16 away

0.76

creates per match

1.25

1.80

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Dynamo Makhachkala II

0.76

Sochi II

1.25

allows per match

Dynamo Makhachkala II

1.80

Sochi II

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo Makhachkala II+0.00on par

Sochi II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Makhachkala II ↓

Sochi II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Dynamo Makhachkala II or draw

53%

Dynamo Makhachkala II or Sochi II

74%

Draw or Sochi II

73%

Winning margin

Dynamo Makhachkala II wins by 2+

11%

Sochi II wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Dynamo Makhachkala II 1+ goals

67%

Dynamo Makhachkala II 2+ goals

30%

Dynamo Makhachkala II 3+ goals

10%

Sochi II 1+ goals

78%

Sochi II 2+ goals

45%

Sochi II 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Makhachkala II (draw refunded)

37%

Sochi II (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Makhachkala II at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.80 · 49 matches

Sochi II away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Makhachkala II attack 0.76 + Sochi II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.10

Sochi II attack 1.25 + Dynamo Makhachkala II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dynamo Makhachkala II scores more

27%

level

26%

Sochi II scores more

47%

Sochi II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sochi II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff