Sochi II 1–0 Angust Nazran: Result & Stats

Sochi II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Angust Nazran

10/26/2025

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sochi II50%

×Draw29%

Angust Nazran21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sochi IIExpected goals in this matchAngust Nazran

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.70

Sochi II

1.27

Angust Nazran

0.70

Sochi II creates 81% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 41 away

1.41

creates per match

0.63

0.76

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Sochi II

1.41

Angust Nazran

0.63

allows per match

Sochi II

0.76

Angust Nazran

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sochi II+0.00on par

Angust Nazran+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sochi II ↓

Angust Nazran →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Sochi II or draw

79%

Sochi II or Angust Nazran

71%

Draw or Angust Nazran

50%

Winning margin

Sochi II wins by 2+

23%

Angust Nazran wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Sochi II 1+ goals

72%

Sochi II 2+ goals

36%

Sochi II 3+ goals

14%

Angust Nazran 1+ goals

50%

Angust Nazran 2+ goals

16%

Angust Nazran 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Sochi II (draw refunded)

71%

Angust Nazran (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sochi II at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Angust Nazran away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.12 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sochi II attack 1.41 + Angust Nazran defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.27

Angust Nazran attack 0.63 + Sochi II defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sochi II scores more

50%

level

29%

Angust Nazran scores more

21%

Sochi II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sochi II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff