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Angust Nazran vs Sochi II — Second League - Group 1 2020

Angust Nazran
Angust Nazran
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Sochi II
Sochi II
8/9/2025Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Angust Nazran36%
×Draw29%
Sochi II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Angust Nazran
1.11
Sochi II
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 16 away

creates per match

Angust Nazran
0.79
Sochi II
1.25

allows per match

Angust Nazran
0.89
Sochi II
1.44

finishing

Angust Nazran+0.00on par
Sochi II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angust Nazran ↓

Sochi II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Angust Nazran or draw
66%
Angust Nazran or Sochi II
71%
Draw or Sochi II
64%

Winning margin

Angust Nazran wins by 2+
15%
Sochi II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Angust Nazran 1+ goals
67%
Angust Nazran 2+ goals
30%
Angust Nazran 3+ goals
10%
Sochi II 1+ goals
66%
Sochi II 2+ goals
29%
Sochi II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Angust Nazran (draw refunded)
51%
Sochi II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angust Nazran at home — creates 0.79, concedes 0.89 · 38 matches

Sochi II away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angust Nazran attack 0.79 + Sochi II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.11

Sochi II attack 1.25 + Angust Nazran defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Angust Nazran scores more
36%
level
29%
Sochi II scores more
34%

Angust Nazran at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Angust Nazran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Angust Nazran 2–0 Sochi II

Angust Nazran beat Sochi II 2-0 in Second League - Group 1 on August 9, 2025.