Sochaux 2–1 Saint Etienne: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Sochaux

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Saint Etienne

M. Doumbia 48'

S. Agouzoul 3'

J. Krasso 69' (pen)

10/10/2022

Ligue 2 · Round 11Stade Auguste-Bonal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Sochaux37%

×Draw27%

Saint Etienne36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SochauxExpected goals in this matchSaint Etienne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.21

Sochaux

1.23

Saint Etienne

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 158 home / 55 away

1.23

creates per match

1.33

1.08

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Sochaux

1.23

Saint Etienne

1.33

allows per match

Sochaux

1.08

Saint Etienne

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sochaux+0.00on par

Saint Etienne+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sochaux ↓

Saint Etienne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sochaux or draw

64%

Sochaux or Saint Etienne

73%

Draw or Saint Etienne

63%

Winning margin

Sochaux wins by 2+

16%

Saint Etienne wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sochaux 1+ goals

71%

Sochaux 2+ goals

35%

Sochaux 3+ goals

13%

Saint Etienne 1+ goals

70%

Saint Etienne 2+ goals

34%

Saint Etienne 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sochaux (draw refunded)

51%

Saint Etienne (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sochaux at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.08 · 158 matches

Saint Etienne away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sochaux attack 1.23 + Saint Etienne defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.23

Saint Etienne attack 1.33 + Sochaux defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sochaux scores more

37%

level

27%

Saint Etienne scores more

36%

Sochaux at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sochaux will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

V. Lobry

Saint Etienne · M

7.7

Match Events

3'

S. Agouzoul↳ G. Weissbeck

19'

36'

40'

45+1'

48'

M. Doumbia↳ I. Sissoko

56'

Ismaël Aaneba

56'

L. Pintor← Sergi Palencia

66'

Julien Faussurier

69'

J. KrassoPenalty

73'

A. Kalulu← I. Sissoko

78'

M. Cafaro← A. Bakayoko

78'

B. Bouchouari← D. Chambost

79'

S. Alvero← M. Doumbia

84'

A. Moueffek← Y. Maçon

86'

R. Pereira De Sa← F. Kanouté

87'

H. Tebily← T. Mauricio

90+4'

Jean-Philippe Krasso

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SochauxSaint

Overview

54%Possession46%

7Total Shots16

2Corners4

15Fouls17

Shots

7Total Shots16

5On Target5

2Off Target10

0Blocked1

4Inside Box11

3Outside Box5

Passing

54%Possession46%

424Total Passes344

357Accurate Passes283

84%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls17

4Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

1Offsides3

Ligue 2: Sochaux 2–1 Saint Etienne

Sochaux beat Saint Etienne 2-1 in Ligue 2 on October 10, 2022.

Goals: S. Agouzoul (3'), M. Doumbia (48'), J. Krasso (69' pen).

Sochaux controlled possession (54%) and registered 7 shots to 16.

The match was played at Stade Auguste-Bonal in Montbéliard.

Sochaux vs Saint Etienne — Ligue 2 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 2: Sochaux 2–1 Saint Etienne