Saint Etienne 2–3 Sochaux: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Saint Etienne

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Sochaux

G. Charbonnier 78'

J. Krasso 50' (pen)

I. Sissoko 90+4'

J. Dossou 89'

T. Mauricio 3'

1/28/2023

Ligue 2 · Round 20Stade Geoffroy-Guichard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Saint Etienne46%

×Draw27%

Sochaux27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saint EtienneExpected goals in this matchSochaux

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.02

Saint Etienne

1.43

Sochaux

1.02

Saint Etienne creates 40% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 159 away

1.77

creates per match

0.99

1.05

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Saint Etienne

1.77

Sochaux

0.99

allows per match

Saint Etienne

1.05

Sochaux

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saint Etienne+0.00on par

Sochaux+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Etienne ↓

Sochaux →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Saint Etienne or draw

73%

Saint Etienne or Sochaux

73%

Draw or Sochaux

54%

Winning margin

Saint Etienne wins by 2+

23%

Sochaux wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Saint Etienne 1+ goals

76%

Saint Etienne 2+ goals

42%

Saint Etienne 3+ goals

17%

Sochaux 1+ goals

64%

Sochaux 2+ goals

27%

Sochaux 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Saint Etienne (draw refunded)

63%

Sochaux (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Etienne at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.05 · 56 matches

Sochaux away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.08 · 159 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Etienne attack 1.77 + Sochaux defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.43

Sochaux attack 0.99 + Saint Etienne defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Saint Etienne scores more

46%

level

27%

Sochaux scores more

27%

Saint Etienne at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Saint Etienne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

70

M. Doumbia

Sochaux · M

7.7

Match Events

3'

T. Mauricio↳ M. Doumbia

36'

38'

44'

46'

50'

J. KrassoPenalty

57'

Gaëtan Charbonnier

71'

J. Dossou← T. Mauricio

71'

I. Sissoko← A. Kalulu

75'

Rassoul Ndiaye

76'

L. Pétrot← M. Cafaro

78'

G. Charbonnier↳ V. Lobry

79'

F. Kanouté← S. Alvero

84'

L. Mouton← N. Nkounkou

84'

D. Chambost← G. Charbonnier

86'

H. Tebily← R. Ndiaye

89'

J. Dossou

90+6'

Ibrahim Sissoko

90+2'

J. Giraudon← A. Briançon

90+4'

I. Sissoko↳ G. Weissbeck

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SaintSochaux

Overview

48%Possession52%

14Total Shots12

8Corners2

17Fouls17

Shots

14Total Shots12

5On Target6

5Off Target4

4Blocked2

9Inside Box10

5Outside Box2

Passing

48%Possession52%

398Total Passes442

321Accurate Passes352

81%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls17

2Yellow Cards4

4Offsides0

Ligue 2: Saint Etienne 2–3 Sochaux

Sochaux beat Saint Etienne 3-2 in Ligue 2 on January 28, 2023.

Goals: T. Mauricio (3'), J. Krasso (50' pen), G. Charbonnier (78'), J. Dossou (89'), I. Sissoko (90+4').

Sochaux controlled possession (52%) and registered 12 shots to 14.

The match was played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Saint-Ètienne.

Saint Etienne vs Sochaux — Ligue 2 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 2: Saint Etienne 2–3 Sochaux