Sochaux 0–1 Amiens: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Sochaux

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Amiens

Mamadou Fofana II 71'

8/13/2022

Ligue 2 · Round 3Stade Auguste-Bonal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 148+ matches

Sochaux44%

×Draw27%

Amiens28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SochauxExpected goals in this matchAmiens

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.04

Sochaux

1.37

Amiens

1.04

Sochaux creates 32% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 148 away

1.23

creates per match

1.00

1.08

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Sochaux

1.23

Amiens

1.00

allows per match

Sochaux

1.08

Amiens

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sochaux+0.00on par

Amiens+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sochaux ↓

Amiens →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sochaux or draw

72%

Sochaux or Amiens

73%

Draw or Amiens

56%

Winning margin

Sochaux wins by 2+

21%

Amiens wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sochaux 1+ goals

75%

Sochaux 2+ goals

40%

Sochaux 3+ goals

16%

Amiens 1+ goals

65%

Amiens 2+ goals

28%

Amiens 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sochaux (draw refunded)

61%

Amiens (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sochaux at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.08 · 158 matches

Amiens away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.51 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sochaux attack 1.23 + Amiens defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.37

Amiens attack 1.00 + Sochaux defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sochaux scores more

44%

level

27%

Amiens scores more

28%

Sochaux at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sochaux will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

R. Gurtner

Amiens · G

7.9

Match Events

7'

Mamadou Fofana

16'

Franck Kanouté

22'

Jessy Benet

59'

S. Alvero← R. Pereira De Sa

59'

Eliezer Mayenda← I. Sissoko

59'

F. Bianchini← T. Arokodare

67'

Formose Mendy

67'

V. Henry← F. Kanouté

70'

Mamadou Fofana II← J. Bénet

70'

S. Ring← M. Xantippe

71'

Mamadou Fofana II↳ J. Gelin

72'

Jérémy Gélin

76'

M. Doumbia← T. Mauricio

76'

S. Faraj← Y. Armougom

79'

Florian Bianchini

80'

M. Lachuer← A. Chibozo

81'

83'

83'

87'

89'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SochauxAmiens

Overview

56%Possession44%

15Total Shots7

4Corners3

12Fouls18

Shots

15Total Shots7

4On Target4

6Off Target3

5Blocked0

8Inside Box4

7Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

471Total Passes378

389Accurate Passes278

83%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls18

2Yellow Cards9

0Red Cards1

2Offsides3

Match Recap: Sochaux vs Amiens

Amiens beat Sochaux 1-0 in Ligue 2 on August 13, 2022.

Goals: Mamadou Fofana II (71').

Sochaux controlled possession (56%) and registered 15 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stade Auguste-Bonal in Montbéliard.

Sochaux vs Amiens — Ligue 2 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Sochaux vs Amiens