Amiens 1–0 Sochaux: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Amiens

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sochaux

G. Ilenikhena 76'

5/6/2023

Ligue 2 · Round 34Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 148+ matches

Amiens37%

×Draw30%

Sochaux33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AmiensExpected goals in this matchSochaux

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.02

Amiens

1.10

Sochaux

1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 148 home / 159 away

1.11

creates per match

0.99

1.05

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Amiens

1.11

Sochaux

0.99

allows per match

Amiens

1.05

Sochaux

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amiens+0.00on par

Sochaux+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amiens ↓

Sochaux →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Amiens or draw

67%

Amiens or Sochaux

70%

Draw or Sochaux

63%

Winning margin

Amiens wins by 2+

15%

Sochaux wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Amiens 1+ goals

67%

Amiens 2+ goals

30%

Amiens 3+ goals

10%

Sochaux 1+ goals

64%

Sochaux 2+ goals

27%

Sochaux 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Amiens (draw refunded)

53%

Sochaux (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amiens at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.05 · 148 matches

Sochaux away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.08 · 159 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amiens attack 1.11 + Sochaux defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Sochaux attack 0.99 + Amiens defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Amiens scores more

37%

level

30%

Sochaux scores more

33%

Amiens at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Amiens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

R. Gurtner

Amiens · G

7.7

Match Events

54'

55'

56'

65'

66'

G. Ilenikhena← H. Bandé

70'

F. Kanouté← R. Ndiaye

71'

T. Mauricio← M. Doumbia

76'

G. Ilenikhena

78'

Eliezer Mayenda← S. Alvero

81'

M. Xantippe← S. Ring

82'

O. Gene← I. Gomis

90'

Y. Assogba← P. Cissé

90'

M. Lachuer← J. Antiste

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmiensSochaux

Overview

43%Possession57%

13Total Shots6

6Corners5

13Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots6

6On Target3

4Off Target2

3Blocked1

9Inside Box3

4Outside Box3

Passing

43%Possession57%

378Total Passes500

307Accurate Passes419

81%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

4Offsides1

Ligue 2: Amiens 1–0 Sochaux

Amiens beat Sochaux 1-0 in Ligue 2 on May 6, 2023.

Goals: G. Ilenikhena (76').

Sochaux controlled possession (57%) and registered 6 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne in Amiens.

Amiens vs Sochaux — Ligue 2 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 2: Amiens 1–0 Sochaux