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Soccer Intellectuals vs Police National — Division One League 2025

Soccer Intellectuals
Soccer Intellectuals
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Police National
Police National
12/7/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Soccer Intellectuals50%
×Draw33%
Police National17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Soccer Intellectuals
1.10
Police National
0.50

Soccer Intellectuals creates 120% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Soccer Intellectuals
1.00
Police National
0.47

allows per match

Soccer Intellectuals
0.53
Police National
1.20

finishing

Soccer Intellectuals+0.00on par
Police National+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

74%No
  • No74
  • Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Soccer Intellectuals ↓

Police National →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–110%
0–23%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
47%53%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Soccer Intellectuals or draw
83%
Soccer Intellectuals or Police National
67%
Draw or Police National
50%

Winning margin

Soccer Intellectuals wins by 2+
21%
Police National wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Soccer Intellectuals 1+ goals
67%
Soccer Intellectuals 2+ goals
30%
Soccer Intellectuals 3+ goals
10%
Police National 1+ goals
39%
Police National 2+ goals
9%
Police National 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Soccer Intellectuals (draw refunded)
75%
Police National (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Soccer Intellectuals at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.53 · 15 matches

Police National away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Soccer Intellectuals attack 1.00 + Police National defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Police National attack 0.47 + Soccer Intellectuals defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Soccer Intellectuals scores more
50%
level
33%
Police National scores more
17%

Soccer Intellectuals at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Soccer Intellectuals will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Soccer Intellectuals vs Police National

Soccer Intellectuals beat Police National 1-0 in Division One League on December 7, 2025.