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Police National vs Soccer Intellectuals — Division One League 2025

Police National
Police National
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Soccer Intellectuals
Soccer Intellectuals
4/5/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Police National52%
×Draw29%
Soccer Intellectuals19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Police National
1.30
Soccer Intellectuals
0.67

Police National creates 94% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Police National
1.13
Soccer Intellectuals
0.53

allows per match

Police National
0.80
Soccer Intellectuals
1.47

finishing

Police National+0.00on par
Soccer Intellectuals+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Police National ↓

Soccer Intellectuals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Police National or draw
81%
Police National or Soccer Intellectuals
71%
Draw or Soccer Intellectuals
48%

Winning margin

Police National wins by 2+
24%
Soccer Intellectuals wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Police National 1+ goals
73%
Police National 2+ goals
37%
Police National 3+ goals
14%
Soccer Intellectuals 1+ goals
49%
Soccer Intellectuals 2+ goals
15%
Soccer Intellectuals 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Police National (draw refunded)
73%
Soccer Intellectuals (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Police National at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

Soccer Intellectuals away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Police National attack 1.13 + Soccer Intellectuals defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Soccer Intellectuals attack 0.53 + Police National defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Police National scores more
52%
level
29%
Soccer Intellectuals scores more
19%

Police National at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Police National will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Police National vs Soccer Intellectuals

Soccer Intellectuals beat Police National 1-0 in Division One League on April 5, 2026.