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Soccer Intellectuals vs King Faisal — Division One League 2025

Soccer Intellectuals
Soccer Intellectuals
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
King Faisal
King Faisal
11/2/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Soccer Intellectuals48%
×Draw31%
King Faisal21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Soccer Intellectuals
1.17
King Faisal
0.67

Soccer Intellectuals creates 75% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Soccer Intellectuals
1.00
King Faisal
0.80

allows per match

Soccer Intellectuals
0.53
King Faisal
1.33

finishing

Soccer Intellectuals+0.00on par
King Faisal+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Soccer Intellectuals ↓

King Faisal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Soccer Intellectuals or draw
79%
Soccer Intellectuals or King Faisal
69%
Draw or King Faisal
52%

Winning margin

Soccer Intellectuals wins by 2+
21%
King Faisal wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Soccer Intellectuals 1+ goals
69%
Soccer Intellectuals 2+ goals
33%
Soccer Intellectuals 3+ goals
11%
King Faisal 1+ goals
49%
King Faisal 2+ goals
15%
King Faisal 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Soccer Intellectuals (draw refunded)
69%
King Faisal (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Soccer Intellectuals at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.53 · 15 matches

King Faisal away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Soccer Intellectuals attack 1.00 + King Faisal defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

King Faisal attack 0.80 + Soccer Intellectuals defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Soccer Intellectuals scores more
48%
level
31%
King Faisal scores more
21%

Soccer Intellectuals at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Soccer Intellectuals will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Soccer Intellectuals vs King Faisal

Soccer Intellectuals beat King Faisal 1-0 in Division One League on November 2, 2025.