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King Faisal vs Soccer Intellectuals — Division One League 2025

King Faisal
King Faisal
FT
1 – 0
Soccer Intellectuals
Soccer Intellectuals
2/22/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

King Faisal55%
×Draw27%
Soccer Intellectuals18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

King Faisal
1.44
Soccer Intellectuals
0.70

King Faisal creates 106% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

King Faisal
1.40
Soccer Intellectuals
0.53

allows per match

King Faisal
0.87
Soccer Intellectuals
1.47

finishing

King Faisal+0.00on par
Soccer Intellectuals+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

King Faisal ↓

Soccer Intellectuals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

King Faisal or draw
82%
King Faisal or Soccer Intellectuals
73%
Draw or Soccer Intellectuals
45%

Winning margin

King Faisal wins by 2+
28%
Soccer Intellectuals wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

King Faisal 1+ goals
76%
King Faisal 2+ goals
42%
King Faisal 3+ goals
18%
Soccer Intellectuals 1+ goals
50%
Soccer Intellectuals 2+ goals
16%
Soccer Intellectuals 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

King Faisal (draw refunded)
75%
Soccer Intellectuals (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

King Faisal at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Soccer Intellectuals away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

King Faisal attack 1.40 + Soccer Intellectuals defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.44

Soccer Intellectuals attack 0.53 + King Faisal defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

King Faisal scores more
55%
level
27%
Soccer Intellectuals scores more
18%

King Faisal at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "King Faisal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: King Faisal 1–0 Soccer Intellectuals

King Faisal beat Soccer Intellectuals 1-0 in Division One League on February 22, 2026.