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Sobrance vs Poprad — 3. liga - East 2020

Sobrance
Sobrance
FT
1 – 2
Poprad
Poprad
8/29/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 6Futbalový štadión MFK Sobrance

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sobrance46%
×Draw23%
Poprad32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sobrance
1.82
Poprad
1.48

Sobrance creates 23% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 58 away

creates per match

Sobrance
1.73
Poprad
1.22

allows per match

Sobrance
1.73
Poprad
1.91

finishing

Sobrance+0.00on par
Poprad+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sobrance ↓

Poprad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Sobrance or draw
68%
Sobrance or Poprad
77%
Draw or Poprad
54%

Winning margin

Sobrance wins by 2+
25%
Poprad wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sobrance 1+ goals
84%
Sobrance 2+ goals
54%
Sobrance 3+ goals
27%
Poprad 1+ goals
77%
Poprad 2+ goals
43%
Poprad 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Sobrance (draw refunded)
59%
Poprad (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sobrance at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Poprad away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.91 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sobrance attack 1.73 + Poprad defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.82

Poprad attack 1.22 + Sobrance defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sobrance scores more
46%
level
23%
Poprad scores more
32%

Sobrance at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sobrance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - East: Sobrance 1–2 Poprad

Poprad beat Sobrance 2-1 in 3. liga - East on August 29, 2021.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión MFK Sobrance in Sobrance.