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Poprad vs Sobrance — 3. liga - East 2020

Poprad
Poprad
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sobrance
Sobrance
4/16/20223. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 21Futbalový štadion NTC Poprad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Poprad66%
×Draw20%
Sobrance14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Poprad
2.04
Sobrance
0.81

Poprad creates 152% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 15 away

creates per match

Poprad
1.55
Sobrance
0.73

allows per match

Poprad
0.90
Sobrance
2.53

finishing

Poprad+0.00on par
Sobrance+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poprad ↓

Sobrance →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Poprad or draw
86%
Poprad or Sobrance
80%
Draw or Sobrance
34%

Winning margin

Poprad wins by 2+
41%
Sobrance wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Poprad 1+ goals
87%
Poprad 2+ goals
60%
Poprad 3+ goals
33%
Sobrance 1+ goals
56%
Sobrance 2+ goals
19%
Sobrance 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Poprad (draw refunded)
82%
Sobrance (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poprad at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.90 · 58 matches

Sobrance away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poprad attack 1.55 + Sobrance defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.04

Sobrance attack 0.73 + Poprad defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Poprad scores more
66%
level
20%
Sobrance scores more
14%

Poprad at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Poprad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - East: Poprad 2–0 Sobrance

Poprad beat Sobrance 2-0 in 3. liga - East on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at Futbalový štadion NTC Poprad in Poprad.