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SOA vs Issia Wazi — Ligue 1 2019

SOA
SOA
FT
2 – 1
Issia Wazi
Issia Wazi
2/23/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 18Stade Robert Champroux

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

SOA43%
×Draw30%
Issia Wazi28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SOA
1.20
Issia Wazi
0.90

SOA creates 33% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 10 away

creates per match

SOA
1.00
Issia Wazi
1.00

allows per match

SOA
0.79
Issia Wazi
1.40

finishing

SOA+0.00on par
Issia Wazi+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SOA ↓

Issia Wazi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

SOA or draw
72%
SOA or Issia Wazi
70%
Draw or Issia Wazi
57%

Winning margin

SOA wins by 2+
19%
Issia Wazi wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

SOA 1+ goals
70%
SOA 2+ goals
34%
SOA 3+ goals
12%
Issia Wazi 1+ goals
59%
Issia Wazi 2+ goals
23%
Issia Wazi 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

SOA (draw refunded)
61%
Issia Wazi (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SOA at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.79 · 91 matches

Issia Wazi away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SOA attack 1.00 + Issia Wazi defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Issia Wazi attack 1.00 + SOA defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SOA scores more
43%
level
30%
Issia Wazi scores more
28%

SOA at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SOA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: SOA 2–1 Issia Wazi

SOA beat Issia Wazi 2-1 in Ligue 1 on February 23, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Robert Champroux in Abidjan.