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Issia Wazi vs SOA — Ligue 1 2019

Issia Wazi
Issia Wazi
FT
0 – 1
SOA
SOA
11/2/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 5Stade Victor Biaka Boda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Issia Wazi21%
×Draw27%
SOA52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Issia Wazi
0.78
SOA
1.42

SOA creates 82% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 93 away

creates per match

Issia Wazi
0.60
SOA
1.15

allows per match

Issia Wazi
1.70
SOA
0.97

finishing

Issia Wazi+0.00on par
SOA+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Issia Wazi ↓

SOA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–116%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Issia Wazi or draw
48%
Issia Wazi or SOA
73%
Draw or SOA
79%

Winning margin

Issia Wazi wins by 2+
6%
SOA wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Issia Wazi 1+ goals
54%
Issia Wazi 2+ goals
18%
Issia Wazi 3+ goals
4%
SOA 1+ goals
76%
SOA 2+ goals
41%
SOA 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Issia Wazi (draw refunded)
28%
SOA (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Issia Wazi at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

SOA away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.97 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Issia Wazi attack 0.60 + SOA defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.78

SOA attack 1.15 + Issia Wazi defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Issia Wazi scores more
21%
level
27%
SOA scores more
52%

SOA at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "SOA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Issia Wazi 0 – 1 SOA

SOA beat Issia Wazi 1-0 in Ligue 1 on November 2, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Victor Biaka Boda in Ouragahio, Gagnoa.