Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

SNL vs Slee Juniors — Eerste Divisie 2019

SNL
SNL
FT
6 – 3
Slee Juniors
Slee Juniors
4/22/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 13Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

SNL33%
×Draw20%
Slee Juniors47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SNL
1.94
Slee Juniors
2.30

Slee Juniors creates 19% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 12 away

creates per match

SNL
1.39
Slee Juniors
2.25

allows per match

SNL
2.36
Slee Juniors
2.50

finishing

SNL+0.00on par
Slee Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SNL ↓

Slee Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

SNL or draw
53%
SNL or Slee Juniors
80%
Draw or Slee Juniors
67%

Winning margin

SNL wins by 2+
17%
Slee Juniors wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

SNL 1+ goals
86%
SNL 2+ goals
58%
SNL 3+ goals
30%
Slee Juniors 1+ goals
90%
Slee Juniors 2+ goals
67%
Slee Juniors 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

SNL (draw refunded)
42%
Slee Juniors (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SNL at home — creates 1.39, concedes 2.36 · 28 matches

Slee Juniors away — creates 2.25, concedes 2.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SNL attack 1.39 + Slee Juniors defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.94

Slee Juniors attack 2.25 + SNL defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

SNL scores more
33%
level
20%
Slee Juniors scores more
47%

Slee Juniors at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Slee Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: SNL 6–3 Slee Juniors

SNL beat Slee Juniors 6-3 in Eerste Divisie on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.