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Slee Juniors vs SNL — Eerste Divisie 2019

Slee Juniors
Slee Juniors
FT
1 – 0
SNL
SNL
7/29/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 26Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Slee Juniors53%
×Draw21%
SNL26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slee Juniors
2.17
SNL
1.48

Slee Juniors creates 47% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 29 away

creates per match

Slee Juniors
1.58
SNL
1.21

allows per match

Slee Juniors
1.75
SNL
2.76

finishing

Slee Juniors+0.00on par
SNL+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slee Juniors ↓

SNL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Slee Juniors or draw
74%
Slee Juniors or SNL
79%
Draw or SNL
47%

Winning margin

Slee Juniors wins by 2+
32%
SNL wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Slee Juniors 1+ goals
89%
Slee Juniors 2+ goals
64%
Slee Juniors 3+ goals
36%
SNL 1+ goals
77%
SNL 2+ goals
43%
SNL 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Slee Juniors (draw refunded)
67%
SNL (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slee Juniors at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

SNL away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.76 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slee Juniors attack 1.58 + SNL defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.17

SNL attack 1.21 + Slee Juniors defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Slee Juniors scores more
53%
level
21%
SNL scores more
26%

Slee Juniors at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Slee Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slee Juniors vs SNL

Slee Juniors beat SNL 1-0 in Eerste Divisie on July 29, 2023.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.