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SNL vs Robin Hood — Eerste Divisie 2019

SNL
SNL
FT
0 – 4
Robin Hood
Robin Hood
3/29/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 6Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

SNL14%
×Draw16%
Robin Hood70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SNL
1.15
Robin Hood
2.71

Robin Hood creates 136% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 61 away

creates per match

SNL
1.39
Robin Hood
3.05

allows per match

SNL
2.36
Robin Hood
0.90

finishing

SNL+0.00on par
Robin Hood+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SNL ↓

Robin Hood →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

SNL or draw
30%
SNL or Robin Hood
84%
Draw or Robin Hood
86%

Winning margin

SNL wins by 2+
5%
Robin Hood wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

SNL 1+ goals
68%
SNL 2+ goals
32%
SNL 3+ goals
11%
Robin Hood 1+ goals
93%
Robin Hood 2+ goals
75%
Robin Hood 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

SNL (draw refunded)
17%
Robin Hood (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SNL at home — creates 1.39, concedes 2.36 · 28 matches

Robin Hood away — creates 3.05, concedes 0.90 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SNL attack 1.39 + Robin Hood defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.15

Robin Hood attack 3.05 + SNL defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

SNL scores more
14%
level
16%
Robin Hood scores more
70%

Robin Hood at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Robin Hood will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SNL vs Robin Hood

Robin Hood beat SNL 4-0 in Eerste Divisie on March 29, 2023.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.