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Robin Hood vs SNL — Eerste Divisie 2019

Robin Hood
Robin Hood
FT
4 – 0
SNL
SNL
6/4/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 19Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Robin Hood75%
×Draw14%
SNL10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Robin Hood
2.84
SNL
0.97

Robin Hood creates 193% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 29 away

creates per match

Robin Hood
2.92
SNL
1.21

allows per match

Robin Hood
0.74
SNL
2.76

finishing

Robin Hood+0.00on par
SNL+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Robin Hood ↓

SNL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Robin Hood or draw
90%
Robin Hood or SNL
86%
Draw or SNL
25%

Winning margin

Robin Hood wins by 2+
55%
SNL wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Robin Hood 1+ goals
94%
Robin Hood 2+ goals
77%
Robin Hood 3+ goals
53%
SNL 1+ goals
62%
SNL 2+ goals
25%
SNL 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Robin Hood (draw refunded)
88%
SNL (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Robin Hood at home — creates 2.92, concedes 0.74 · 61 matches

SNL away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.76 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Robin Hood attack 2.92 + SNL defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.84

SNL attack 1.21 + Robin Hood defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Robin Hood scores more
75%
level
14%
SNL scores more
10%

Robin Hood at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Robin Hood will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Robin Hood vs SNL

Robin Hood beat SNL 4-0 in Eerste Divisie on June 4, 2023.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.