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SNL vs PVV — Eerste Divisie 2019

SNL
SNL
FT
0 – 5
PVV
PVV
4/8/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 8Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

SNL27%
×Draw22%
PVV51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SNL
1.38
PVV
1.98

PVV creates 43% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 48 away

creates per match

SNL
1.39
PVV
1.60

allows per match

SNL
2.36
PVV
1.38

finishing

SNL+0.00on par
PVV+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SNL ↓

PVV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

SNL or draw
49%
SNL or PVV
78%
Draw or PVV
73%

Winning margin

SNL wins by 2+
12%
PVV wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

SNL 1+ goals
75%
SNL 2+ goals
40%
SNL 3+ goals
16%
PVV 1+ goals
86%
PVV 2+ goals
59%
PVV 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

SNL (draw refunded)
34%
PVV (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SNL at home — creates 1.39, concedes 2.36 · 28 matches

PVV away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.38 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SNL attack 1.39 + PVV defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

PVV attack 1.60 + SNL defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

SNL scores more
27%
level
22%
PVV scores more
51%

PVV at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "PVV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: SNL 0–5 PVV

PVV beat SNL 5-0 in Eerste Divisie on April 8, 2023.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.