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PVV vs SNL — Eerste Divisie 2019

PVV
PVV
FT
6 – 0
SNL
SNL
6/22/2022Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 14Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

PVV65%
×Draw18%
SNL16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PVV
2.42
SNL
1.13

PVV creates 114% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 29 away

creates per match

PVV
2.09
SNL
1.21

allows per match

PVV
1.05
SNL
2.76

finishing

PVV+0.00on par
SNL+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PVV ↓

SNL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

PVV or draw
84%
PVV or SNL
82%
Draw or SNL
35%

Winning margin

PVV wins by 2+
43%
SNL wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

PVV 1+ goals
91%
PVV 2+ goals
69%
PVV 3+ goals
43%
SNL 1+ goals
68%
SNL 2+ goals
31%
SNL 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

PVV (draw refunded)
80%
SNL (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PVV at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.05 · 43 matches

SNL away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.76 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PVV attack 2.09 + SNL defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.42

SNL attack 1.21 + PVV defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

PVV scores more
65%
level
18%
SNL scores more
16%

PVV at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "PVV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PVV vs SNL

PVV beat SNL 6-0 in Eerste Divisie on June 22, 2022.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.