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SNL vs Leo Victor — Eerste Divisie 2019

SNL
SNL
FT
2 – 1
Leo Victor
Leo Victor
7/6/2022Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 16Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

SNL28%
×Draw21%
Leo Victor51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SNL
1.50
Leo Victor
2.08

Leo Victor creates 39% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 57 away

creates per match

SNL
1.39
Leo Victor
1.79

allows per match

SNL
2.36
Leo Victor
1.60

finishing

SNL+0.00on par
Leo Victor+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SNL ↓

Leo Victor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

SNL or draw
49%
SNL or Leo Victor
79%
Draw or Leo Victor
72%

Winning margin

SNL wins by 2+
13%
Leo Victor wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

SNL 1+ goals
78%
SNL 2+ goals
44%
SNL 3+ goals
19%
Leo Victor 1+ goals
87%
Leo Victor 2+ goals
61%
Leo Victor 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

SNL (draw refunded)
35%
Leo Victor (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SNL at home — creates 1.39, concedes 2.36 · 28 matches

Leo Victor away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.60 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SNL attack 1.39 + Leo Victor defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.50

Leo Victor attack 1.79 + SNL defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

SNL scores more
28%
level
21%
Leo Victor scores more
51%

Leo Victor at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Leo Victor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SNL vs Leo Victor

SNL beat Leo Victor 2-1 in Eerste Divisie on July 6, 2022.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.