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Leo Victor vs SNL — Eerste Divisie 2019

Leo Victor
Leo Victor
FT
5 – 0
SNL
SNL
3/26/2022Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 5Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Leo Victor57%
×Draw20%
SNL23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leo Victor
2.29
SNL
1.40

Leo Victor creates 64% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 29 away

creates per match

Leo Victor
1.82
SNL
1.21

allows per match

Leo Victor
1.59
SNL
2.76

finishing

Leo Victor+0.00on par
SNL+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leo Victor ↓

SNL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Leo Victor or draw
77%
Leo Victor or SNL
80%
Draw or SNL
43%

Winning margin

Leo Victor wins by 2+
36%
SNL wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Leo Victor 1+ goals
90%
Leo Victor 2+ goals
66%
Leo Victor 3+ goals
40%
SNL 1+ goals
75%
SNL 2+ goals
41%
SNL 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Leo Victor (draw refunded)
71%
SNL (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leo Victor at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.59 · 61 matches

SNL away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.76 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leo Victor attack 1.82 + SNL defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.29

SNL attack 1.21 + Leo Victor defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Leo Victor scores more
57%
level
20%
SNL scores more
23%

Leo Victor at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Leo Victor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leo Victor vs SNL

Leo Victor beat SNL 5-0 in Eerste Divisie on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.