SNL 0–0 Flora Tallinn: Result & Stats

SNL

FT

0 – 0

Flora Tallinn

4/30/2023

Eerste Divisie · Round 14Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

SNL39%

×Draw22%

Flora Tallinn39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SNLExpected goals in this matchFlora Tallinn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.84

SNL

1.82

Flora Tallinn

1.84

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 12 away

1.39

creates per match

1.33

2.36

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

SNL

1.39

Flora Tallinn

1.33

allows per match

SNL

2.36

Flora Tallinn

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SNL+0.00on par

Flora Tallinn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SNL ↓

Flora Tallinn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

SNL or draw

61%

SNL or Flora Tallinn

78%

Draw or Flora Tallinn

61%

Winning margin

SNL wins by 2+

20%

Flora Tallinn wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

SNL 1+ goals

84%

SNL 2+ goals

54%

SNL 3+ goals

27%

Flora Tallinn 1+ goals

84%

Flora Tallinn 2+ goals

55%

Flora Tallinn 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

SNL (draw refunded)

49%

Flora Tallinn (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SNL at home — creates 1.39, concedes 2.36 · 28 matches

Flora Tallinn away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SNL attack 1.39 + Flora Tallinn defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.82

Flora Tallinn attack 1.33 + SNL defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

SNL scores more

39%

level

22%

Flora Tallinn scores more

39%

SNL at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "SNL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff