Flora Tallinn 1–3 SNL: Result & Stats

Flora Tallinn

FT

1 – 3

SNL

1/15/2023

Eerste Divisie · Round 1Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Flora Tallinn46%

×Draw20%

SNL33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Flora TallinnExpected goals in this matchSNL

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.85

Flora Tallinn

2.21

SNL

1.85

Flora Tallinn creates 19% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 29 away

1.67

creates per match

1.21

2.50

allows per match

2.76

creates per match

Flora Tallinn

1.67

SNL

1.21

allows per match

Flora Tallinn

2.50

SNL

2.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flora Tallinn+0.00on par

SNL+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flora Tallinn ↓

SNL →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Flora Tallinn or draw

67%

Flora Tallinn or SNL

80%

Draw or SNL

54%

Winning margin

Flora Tallinn wins by 2+

27%

SNL wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Flora Tallinn 1+ goals

89%

Flora Tallinn 2+ goals

65%

Flora Tallinn 3+ goals

38%

SNL 1+ goals

84%

SNL 2+ goals

55%

SNL 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Flora Tallinn (draw refunded)

58%

SNL (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flora Tallinn at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.50 · 12 matches

SNL away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.76 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flora Tallinn attack 1.67 + SNL defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.21

SNL attack 1.21 + Flora Tallinn defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Flora Tallinn scores more

46%

level

20%

SNL scores more

33%

Flora Tallinn at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Flora Tallinn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff