Smouha SC 1–0 Ceramica Cleopatra: Result & Stats

Smouha SC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ceramica Cleopatra

3/10/2024

Premier League · Round 16Alexandria Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Smouha SC38%

×Draw28%

Ceramica Cleopatra34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Smouha SCExpected goals in this matchCeramica Cleopatra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.12

Smouha SC

1.21

Ceramica Cleopatra

1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 128 home / 93 away

1.25

creates per match

1.12

1.11

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Smouha SC

1.25

Ceramica Cleopatra

1.12

allows per match

Smouha SC

1.11

Ceramica Cleopatra

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Smouha SC+0.00on par

Ceramica Cleopatra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Smouha SC ↓

Ceramica Cleopatra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Smouha SC or draw

66%

Smouha SC or Ceramica Cleopatra

72%

Draw or Ceramica Cleopatra

62%

Winning margin

Smouha SC wins by 2+

16%

Ceramica Cleopatra wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Smouha SC 1+ goals

70%

Smouha SC 2+ goals

34%

Smouha SC 3+ goals

12%

Ceramica Cleopatra 1+ goals

67%

Ceramica Cleopatra 2+ goals

31%

Ceramica Cleopatra 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Smouha SC (draw refunded)

53%

Ceramica Cleopatra (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Smouha SC at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.11 · 128 matches

Ceramica Cleopatra away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.16 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Smouha SC attack 1.25 + Ceramica Cleopatra defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.21

Ceramica Cleopatra attack 1.12 + Smouha SC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Smouha SC scores more

38%

level

28%

Ceramica Cleopatra scores more

34%

Smouha SC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Smouha SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff