Ceramica Cleopatra 0–1 Smouha SC: Result & Stats

Ceramica Cleopatra

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Smouha SC

8/12/2024

Premier League · Round 33Arab Contractors Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Ceramica Cleopatra40%

×Draw28%

Smouha SC32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ceramica CleopatraExpected goals in this matchSmouha SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.08

Ceramica Cleopatra

1.25

Smouha SC

1.08

Ceramica Cleopatra creates 16% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 127 away

1.33

creates per match

1.02

1.14

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Ceramica Cleopatra

1.33

Smouha SC

1.02

allows per match

Ceramica Cleopatra

1.14

Smouha SC

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ceramica Cleopatra+0.00on par

Smouha SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceramica Cleopatra ↓

Smouha SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ceramica Cleopatra or draw

68%

Ceramica Cleopatra or Smouha SC

72%

Draw or Smouha SC

60%

Winning margin

Ceramica Cleopatra wins by 2+

18%

Smouha SC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ceramica Cleopatra 1+ goals

71%

Ceramica Cleopatra 2+ goals

36%

Ceramica Cleopatra 3+ goals

13%

Smouha SC 1+ goals

66%

Smouha SC 2+ goals

29%

Smouha SC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ceramica Cleopatra (draw refunded)

56%

Smouha SC (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceramica Cleopatra at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 94 matches

Smouha SC away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.17 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceramica Cleopatra attack 1.33 + Smouha SC defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Smouha SC attack 1.02 + Ceramica Cleopatra defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ceramica Cleopatra scores more

40%

level

28%

Smouha SC scores more

32%

Ceramica Cleopatra at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ceramica Cleopatra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff