Smorgon vs Bate Borisov — Premier League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 60+ matches
Smorgon26%
Bate Borisov47%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Bate Borisov creates 46% more chances
Season form · 60 home / 112 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under57
- Over43
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No53
- Yes47
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Smorgon ↓
Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Smorgon at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.37 · 60 matches
Bate Borisov away — creates 1.47, concedes 0.96 · 112 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Smorgon attack 0.98 + Bate Borisov defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.97
Bate Borisov attack 1.47 + Smorgon defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.42
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 47%?"
Bate Borisov at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 47% does not mean "Bate Borisov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Smorgon substitutes
Bate Borisov substitutes
Head to Head
5 previous meetingsBate Borisov
Shakhter Soligorsk
Dinamo Minsk
FC Vitebsk
Torpedo Zhodino
Dinamo Brest
Neman
FC Slutsk
Gorodeya
FC Isloch Minsk R.
FC Minsk
FC Gomel
FC Luch Minsk
Torpedo Minsk
Smolevichi-Sti
FC Dnepr MogilevIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Smorgon host Bate Borisov on Sunday, 17 September 2023 at 11:30. The match is part of the Premier League 2018/2019 season.
Premier League: Smorgon 1–2 Bate Borisov
Bate Borisov beat Smorgon 2-1 in Premier League on September 17, 2023.
Goals: C. Intsoen (18'), D. Laptev (37'), I. Vasilevich (90+4').
The match was played at Stadyen Junatstva in Smorgon.