Bate Borisov 2–2 Smorgon: Result & Stats

Bate Borisov

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Smorgon

R. Piletskiy 32'

A. Svirepa 20'

A. Tishko 90'

A. Rakhimov 7'

5/26/2025

Premier League · Round 10Borisov Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Bate Borisov62%

×Draw21%

Smorgon17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bate BorisovExpected goals in this matchSmorgon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.00

Bate Borisov

2.08

Smorgon

1.00

Bate Borisov creates 108% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 58 away

1.81

creates per match

0.88

1.12

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

Bate Borisov

1.81

Smorgon

0.88

allows per match

Bate Borisov

1.12

Smorgon

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bate Borisov+0.00on par

Smorgon+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bate Borisov ↓

Smorgon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Bate Borisov or draw

83%

Bate Borisov or Smorgon

79%

Draw or Smorgon

38%

Winning margin

Bate Borisov wins by 2+

38%

Smorgon wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Bate Borisov 1+ goals

87%

Bate Borisov 2+ goals

61%

Bate Borisov 3+ goals

34%

Smorgon 1+ goals

63%

Smorgon 2+ goals

26%

Smorgon 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bate Borisov (draw refunded)

78%

Smorgon (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bate Borisov at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.12 · 113 matches

Smorgon away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.34 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bate Borisov attack 1.81 + Smorgon defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.08

Smorgon attack 0.88 + Bate Borisov defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Bate Borisov scores more

62%

level

21%

Smorgon scores more

17%

Bate Borisov at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Bate Borisov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

A. Rakhimov↳ A. Stankevich

20'

A. Svirepa↳ D. Zhulpa

32'

R. Piletskiy↳ E. Osipov

33'

Roman Piletskiy

38'

Egor Osipov

42'

Ilya Bogdanovich

66'

R. Guibero← R. Piletskiy

66'

M. Telesh← I. Costrov

70'

Maxim Telesh

70'

S. Sodikov← M. Diallo

76'

A. Dayneko← V. Chebotar

79'

N. Prudnikov← I. Kargbo

79'

M. Svidinskiy← E. Osipov

80'

S. Doumbia← A. Rakhimov

83'

Rayan-Elie Guibero

87'

V. Rusenchik← D. Zhulpa

90'

Arthur Tishko

90'

A. Tishko

Statistics

BateSmorgon

Discipline

4Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0