Smolevichi-Sti 0–1 Neman: Result & Stats

Smolevichi-Sti

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Neman

J. Abouna 87'

6/23/2018

Premier League · Round 13Stadion Ozernyj (Smalyavichy (Smolevichi))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Smolevichi-Sti24%

×Draw24%

Neman53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Smolevichi-StiExpected goals in this matchNeman

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.72

Smolevichi-Sti

1.07

Neman

1.72

Neman creates 61% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 115 away

1.03

creates per match

1.37

2.07

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Smolevichi-Sti

1.03

Neman

1.37

allows per match

Smolevichi-Sti

2.07

Neman

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Smolevichi-Sti+0.00on par

Neman+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Smolevichi-Sti ↓

Neman →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Smolevichi-Sti or draw

47%

Smolevichi-Sti or Neman

76%

Draw or Neman

76%

Winning margin

Smolevichi-Sti wins by 2+

9%

Neman wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Smolevichi-Sti 1+ goals

66%

Smolevichi-Sti 2+ goals

29%

Smolevichi-Sti 3+ goals

9%

Neman 1+ goals

82%

Neman 2+ goals

51%

Neman 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Smolevichi-Sti (draw refunded)

31%

Neman (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Smolevichi-Sti at home — creates 1.03, concedes 2.07 · 29 matches

Neman away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.11 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Smolevichi-Sti attack 1.03 + Neman defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.07

Neman attack 1.37 + Smolevichi-Sti defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Smolevichi-Sti scores more

24%

level

24%

Neman scores more

53%

Neman at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Neman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

A. Anyukevich← V. Kvashuk

46'

E. Savostyanov← E. Leshko

63'

M. Shilo← R. Burets

72'

V. Zukh← P. Chikida

79'

M. Yablonskiy← V. Zhukovski

80'

V. Gorbachik← T. Lutsevich

87'

J. Abouna

Smolevichi-Sti

Neman

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Brazevich

63'▲M. Shilo←▼R. Burets

72'▲V. Zukh←▼P. Chikida

80'▲V. Gorbachik←▼T. Lutsevich

Smolevichi-Sti substitutes

ShiloZukhGorbachikFedyaninVasilenokOkhremchukYarotski

Manager: I. Kovalevich

46'▲A. Anyukevich←▼V. Kvashuk

46'▲E. Savostyanov←▼E. Leshko

79'▲M. Yablonskiy←▼V. Zhukovski

Neman substitutes

AnyukevichSavostyanovYablonskiyKontsevoySayKovelHleb