Neman 1–1 Smolevichi-Sti: Result & Stats

Neman

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Smolevichi-Sti

V. Zhukovski 34' (pen)

V. Karshakevich 23'

11/10/2018

Premier League · Round 28Stadyen Nyoman (Hrodna (Grodno))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Neman58%

×Draw25%

Smolevichi-Sti17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NemanExpected goals in this matchSmolevichi-Sti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.71

Neman

1.56

Smolevichi-Sti

0.71

Neman creates 120% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 28 away

1.36

creates per match

0.61

0.81

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Neman

1.36

Smolevichi-Sti

0.61

allows per match

Neman

0.81

Smolevichi-Sti

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Neman+0.00on par

Smolevichi-Sti+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neman ↓

Smolevichi-Sti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Neman or draw

83%

Neman or Smolevichi-Sti

75%

Draw or Smolevichi-Sti

42%

Winning margin

Neman wins by 2+

31%

Smolevichi-Sti wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Neman 1+ goals

79%

Neman 2+ goals

46%

Neman 3+ goals

21%

Smolevichi-Sti 1+ goals

51%

Smolevichi-Sti 2+ goals

16%

Smolevichi-Sti 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Neman (draw refunded)

77%

Smolevichi-Sti (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neman at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.81 · 115 matches

Smolevichi-Sti away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.75 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neman attack 1.36 + Smolevichi-Sti defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.56

Smolevichi-Sti attack 0.61 + Neman defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Neman scores more

58%

level

25%

Smolevichi-Sti scores more

17%

Neman at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Neman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

V. Karshakevich

34'

V. ZhukovskiPenalty

46'

Y. N'Djeng← A. Gorbach

46'

E. Potapov← A. Vidić

60'

N. Yanush← F. Rudik

68'

A. Fedyanin← A. Krasnov

74'

Y. Khvalko← A. Legchilin

84'

A. Teslyuk← T. Lutsevich

Neman

Smolevichi-Sti

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: I. Kovalevich

46'▲Y. N'Djeng←▼A. Gorbach

60'▲N. Yanush←▼F. Rudik

74'▲Y. Khvalko←▼A. Legchilin

Neman substitutes

N'DjengYanushKhvalkoAtemengeKontsevoyTseslykevichZhurov

Manager: A. Brazevich

46'▲E. Potapov←▼A. Vidić

68'▲A. Fedyanin←▼A. Krasnov

84'▲A. Teslyuk←▼T. Lutsevich

Smolevichi-Sti substitutes

PotapovFedyaninTeslyukBorodinVasilenokOkhremchukPotorocha